List Building - Mathematical Expression of Subs Added Via Articles
One of the things that really interests me is the ability to study past data and predict future activity as a function of the particular variables that influence the activity.
Over the course of building my internet business I have accumulated a lot of data - a couple of thousand articles posted web wide, 15,000 gross subscribers, and around 2000 sales. That gives me around 20,000 data points and over the course of 8 months, the ability to use time-related variables.\r
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Without analyzing the actual data, I have hypothesized a formula which I believe closely resembles the number of subscribers received as a function of the articles I have posted online. \r
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I have created 3 variables:
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fresh articles, which indicates articles submitted within the last 30 days;
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fresh articles lagged by x number of months, which indicates the number of fresh articles submitted in each of the last x number of months,
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denoted respectively as:
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f-1 = articles submitted one month prior,
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f-2 = articles submitted two months prior,,
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f-x = articles submitted x months prior,
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and cumulative articles, which includes all articles submitted.\r
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This is the notation I am using for these variables:
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s=new monthly subs
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f=fresh articles
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a=cumulative articles
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f-x=fresh articles lagged by number of months = x
This is a proposed basic linear model, which roughly predicts the current monthly subscriber impact of my accumulated articles online:
s= 1*f + .5*f-1 + .3*f-2 + .1*f-3 + .1*(a-f-[f-1]-[f-2]-[f-3]) + error
This proposed basic linear model indicates to me, holding all other variables constant, that my new monthly subscriber count is approximately equal to 1 subscriber per new article submitted this month, plus .5 subscribers per article submitted last month plus .3 subscribers per article submitted the month prior to that, plus .1 subscribers per article submitted the month prior to that, plus .1 subscribers per cumulative articles submitted in all prior months, plus some error factor that includes any unexpected and non-predictable exogenous impacts on my new monthly subscriber impact.
Do you want to learn more about how I do it? I have just completed my brand new guide to article marketing success, Your Article Writing and Promotion Guide
Download it free here: Secrets of Article Promotion
Sean Mize is a full time internet marketer who has written over 1200 articles in print and 9 published ebooks.
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